According to Messina, we just do not know. I am sure I speak for everyone when I say that this election is going to be extremely close.
Biden is expected to be the Democratic nominee again, facing just modest opposition in this year's primary despite party-wide worries about his physical and mental health. Though some challengers are pushing hard to stop Trump, he is poised to win the GOP nominee for a third time.
Republican opposition to Trump will be exposed on January 15 when the Iowa caucuses begin nomination. Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis oppose Trump, who leads most national surveys. DeSantis and Haley backers privately think that a long-shot July convention appeal in Wisconsin is their best chance to defeat Trump.
A survey done this month by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that 56% of US respondents would be extremely or very unhappy with Biden as the Democratic presidential contender in 2024. 58% indicated they'd be very or somewhat dissatisfied with Trump as GOP nominee.
Despite solid evidence, some people may feel Biden and Trump won't be on the general election ballot due to disinterest. Conservative strategist Sarah Longwell, who launched the Republican Accountability Project, says she hears that concept often in weekly focus groups with voters from all parties.
Longwell said voters aren't thinking about it, therefore they don't see the most likely scenario, Trump vs. Biden. Trump is extremely risky. I wish everyone's urgency matched our direction.
While worries about Biden revolve on his age, Trump has increasingly embraced authoritarian messaging that warn of his plans to undermine democratic norms if he returns to the White House.